At this point, we’ve got a pretty clear picture of who’s making the playoffs. One thing no one is certain about: who the hell’s going to win the Calder. Let’s break down the options.
Frontrunners:
Moritz Seider (DET): Seider logs big minutes for the Red Wings and has been a revelation on the blue line. He’s also incredible on the power play with his vision and pass accuracy. His tendency to play good, consistent defense makes him stand out in the 2021-22 rookie class,
But that consistency might also hurt him. He isn’t the kind of guy to make highlight plays on a nightly basis, and he’s not a huge presence for PR other than his endearing awkwardness and affinity for face-washing opponents. In a tight Calder race, that lack of off-ice buzz might hurt his chances.
Statistically, Seider has been incredible. He leads Detroit’s defensemen in Corsi playing alongside tire-fire partners (namely the used puck bag that is Danny DeKeyser). A lot of his ice time comes in long and steady shifts, and he can give 24-25 minutes no problem.
It’s what he does in that ice time, though, that makes Seider stand out. He has 17 power play points and counting, quarterbacking the top unit for Detroit. The reasons behind that are clear, just watch his awareness on Detroit’s OT winner over Carolina on March 1. Seider played almost the full 4-on-3 power play, cut short only when Lucas Raymond called game. And despite facing top competition night-in and night-out, Seider has only gone pointless in 20 of his 54 games. Pretty good for a rookie defenseman.
Still, he’s also on the stat sheet thanks to a renewed top six from the Red Wings, with Raymond, Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi having a hand in a lot of goals when Seider’s on the ice. Of his 35 assists, 22 are secondary helpers. Twenty of his assists have come from goals by Raymond, Larkin or Bertuzzi, while 13 came from Robby Fabbri, Filip Zadina, Vlad Namestnikov or Pius Suter. Basically, he dishes the puck to someone in the top six and they score. (Interestingly, only one assist came on a defenseman goal, scored by Filip Hronek)
In my mind, he’s the clear favorite because his success has been instrumental to Detroit’s success. He’s the Red Wings’ clear No. 1 defenseman, and he has been all season. He’s doing well due to his own skill, often in spite of his defense partner. Still, producing more on his own without top six scorers involved would help solidify his case, even though that could be said about a lot of rookies this season.
Trevor Zegras (ANA): If there was a human highlight reel in the NHL, it would have to be Zegras. He created his own variant of the Michigan by passing to Sonny Milano from behind the net. Then he pulled off the Michigan itself against Montreal. Then there was the skills competition shootout goal:
What can’t Zegras do on the ice? I’m convinced his next trick is curing COVID or bringing world peace.
With all that creativity, though, Zegras has gotten burned plenty on defense. He’s flashy and scores most of his points in multi-point outbursts. He’s gone home empty-handed in 27 of his 50 games, and his best production has come from mismatched usage against bottom six forwards. Of his trio of three-point games, two came with 13 minutes of ice time and one came with 15. He’s a great middle six scorer but he hasn’t really brought it on a nightly basis.
What Zegras brings more than anyone in this season’s rookie class is showmanship. Zegras could sell you a free sample, and you would pay him with a smile on your face. He’s got the kind of charisma to become one of the NHL’s darlings, especially now that Connor McDavid is a villain and Alex Ovechkin is associated with Putin (and trying to protect his family, for which I don’t blame him). The PR capabilities of Zegras might give him a leg up on the Calder competition. He’s not just silently good, rather he’ll show you exactly how good he is. That’s sure to gather plenty of votes.
Michael Bunting (TOR): Bunting is an oddity on this list at 26 (just look at the jokes on Twitter), but that doesn’t mean he’s out of the running. He’s got 19 goals and 41 points this season slotting into the Maple Leafs top six. And while his line mates certainly shoulder plenty of the workload, Bunting is still producing at an incredible rate for a rookie.
The majority of his assists are primary helpers too, meaning he’s hitting the goal scorer and setting up the opportunity. Bunting makes full use of his line mates’ skills and knows his place in Toronto’s offensive units. Props to him for taking advantage of that (just look at his five-point night against Detroit and his nine total points against the Red Wings this season).
Still, Bunting can also produce on his own. Twenty of his points came with contributions from Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, while nine came from bottom six scorers, especially Pierre Engvall and Jason Spezza. He’ll never escape the narrative that Matthews and Marner carry him, but Bunting has proven he can get it done himself. It’s also worth noting that only four of his points came on the power play. He’s surviving on limited ice time on a stacked team, but Bunting nevertheless makes his presence felt.
I think it does hurt Bunting that he’s been in the NHL for parts of two seasons before this, playing 26 games with Arizona and logging 14 points. However, he’s still an eligible rookie and he deserves a look for the Calder. I think he’s a for-sure finalist, especially with the Toronto story attached to his success. Winning the Calder, though, seems like a longshot unless he goes on a tear this month. With a lineup as stacked as Toronto’s, that’s well within reason.
Dark Horses:
Lucas Raymond (DET): Heading into this season, Detroit didn’t know if it would throw Raymond in the opening night lineup or put him in Grand Rapids, at least that’s what the press gathered. Then he led Detroit with six points in six preseason games, and he’s been a top line scorer ever since.
Raymond’s success comes from opening up Dylan Larkin’s goal-scoring. Last season, opponents could predict that Larkin was going to generate the best shots on his line. Any time he had some semblance of a top six winger (Tyler Bertuzzi to start the season, then Jakub Vrana at the end), he thrived. But without another good shooter on his wing, Larkin was predictable and got shut down a lot.
This season, though, Raymond has given him a stable right-hand man. Raymond adds a skilled shot and he’s responsible with his positioning. Opponents struggle to lift the puck off his stick in the corners, and his speed correlates to dangerous rushes when defenders get caught too deep. Did I mention his hand-eye coordination?
Two problems hold Raymond back. First, he’s had some slumps, including a 14-game goalless streak that he snapped Jan. 15 against Buffalo. If he had stayed hot during that stretch, he’d still be a frontrunner like he was in October and November. Second, he’s not even the best rookie on his team. While Raymond is a great rookie for Detroit, Seider stands more both on the stat sheet and by the eye test. Raymond is still adjusting to the NHL game, and his role in losses shows that. He’s minus-21 in 24 losses, and his line gets burned often in transition. Once he figures out how to keep his game even, though, look out.
Anton Lundell (FLA): Lundell has been scary good for the Panthers, and yet the buzz around him is eerily silent. He’s got 12 goals and 36 points playing middle six minutes for a stacked Florida squad, and he leads all rookies with a plus-29. The next closest is Michael Bunting at plus-16. Woof.
Like Bunting, Lundell has also worked with limited power play minutes because his team has tons of offensive talent. He exploded for five assists against Columbus on Jan. 31, riding shotgun to Mason Marchment’s six-point night. He’s also a reliable penalty killer and isn’t afraid to block a heavy shot.
Part of the silence around Lundell comes from his tendency to score in wins. All the buzz surrounding those successes centers around established vets like Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov. But Lundell’s contributions play a meaningful part in securing victory. In 29 wins, Lundell has scored 32 points. In 17 regulation and OT losses, he’s got one goal and three assists. He rolls hot when Florida rolls hot.
Lundell probably comes fourth or fifth in voting because Calder voting sadly doesn’t reward defensive forwards nearly enough, and that’s not going to change in the next three months. He could really pour it on this next month, but I really don’t see him doing that with his role on the Panthers. That being said, I don’t think he minds too bad considering Florida’s ceiling. Lundell’s success has been an unexpected bright spot for Florida, and it’s one that could really help them come postseason.
So You’re Saying There’s a Chance?
Matthew Boldy (MIN): A latecomer to the Calder conversation, Boldy has scored 19 points in 21 games with the Wild. He’s a solid middle six winger but his sample size just doesn’t cut it next to the other candidates. Much like Lundell, though, he could still make a run and snag some votes. He’s one of those late bloomers that people search a few years down the road and think “Damn, how did no one vote this guy for Calder.”
Minnesota should be extremely excited to see Boldy play down the road. To have two great rookies back-to-back in Kirill Kaprizov (granted he was already a professional) and Boldy speaks well about Bill Guerin’s GM skills. Too bad Guerin is a shit person.
Cole Caufield (MTL): Oh how the turn tables. Caufield went from being the heir apparent to the Calder to falling apart under former Habs coach Dom Ducharme. He even got sent down to Laval to rekindle his scoring touch earlier this season.
But under Martin St. Louis, Caufield has undergone a renaissance, scoring 12 of his 20 points in the past 10 games. That includes the game-tying goal and OT winner against the Blues on Feb. 17. The media has screeched about how Martin St. Louis brought a breath of fresh air to Montreal. Really though, I think it’s about Caufield wiping the slate clean and regaining the trust of a coach. You can only get burned so many times before you need a mental reset, and Caufield hit that number early this season.
Caufield is a phony contender for winning the Calder (you knew I was throwing that pun in somewhere), but he’s finding the scoring touch that made him a fan favorite in last postseason’s magical run to the Stanley Cup Final. If he keeps playing like he has in recent games, Caufield might find himself there again in future seasons.
Big Tex Goes to College 