This offseason, it looked like Detroit had figured out its biggest problem: GM Steve Yzerman stole a skilled and mildly young goaltender from Carolina in Alex Nedeljkovic. Early on, the dividends from that trade look stupendous.
But the past few games — since the Red Wings’ 10-7 half-comeback/half-blowout against Toronto — Nedeljkovic has not played to the same caliber as the season’s start, when he was third in succession for Detroit’s three-headed Calder monster.
And those struggles beg the question, is Nedeljkovic truly a starter in the NHL?
Well, for the time being he has to be. Thomas Greiss is gone after this season (hopefully for good knowing the kind of person he is), and the Red Wings’ top goalie prospect Sebastian Cossa is still a few years away. Detroit won’t rush him up in order to slide his contract until his prime years, and calling Cossa up to early could sabotage his confidence in a position that relies on mental fortitude. Unless Red Wings fans want Calvin Pickard resigned and brought up as the starter, Nedeljkovic is it.
His performance makes that a comfortable idea. Through 42 games, Nedeljkovic has posted a .901 save percentage and a 3.23 goals-against average. Not bad considering the defense in front of him includes offense-first guys like Marc Staal and pylons like Danny DeKeyser (who went to waivers on his birthday, ouch!).
Detroit’s only great defensemen have been newcomers in Mo Seider and Nick Leddy, and even they can’t stop the bleeding most nights. That flimsy defense is tough for even the best goaltenders to play behind (just look at Connor Hellebuyck behind Winnipeg’s minor-leaguers). Right now, Nedeljkovic’s performance has been exactly what fans and the organization have asked for.
Considering all that, fans might laud his 15-17-6 record, but it’s important to note who those wins and losses come against. Facing top 16 competition, Nedeljkovic has gone 3-14-4, while he’s 12-3-2 against the bottom half of the NHL. He wins the games he should, and he loses the games he probably shouldn’t. That’s been Detroit’s MO all year, so it’s no surprise that his record reflects that considering he starts every two out of three games. Still, he falters when facing teams with any semblance of firepower.
And Nedeljkovic’s recent cold spell reflects that. In the past seven games, Nedeljkovic has let in five or more goals four times. Three of those came against playoff teams (twice to Minnesota and once to Toronto), while one came against a red-hot Arizona club that has won six of its last eight.
If Nedeljkovic wants to join the ranks of solid/elite starters, he has to figure out how to steal games against hot shooters. For a team only two years removed from being the third-worst season in franchise history (saved only by the COVID-19 pandemic and the merciful cancellation of the season), that’s not a bad spot to be in. Still, Detroit can’t be complacent. There’s no award for being the most mid team in the NHL.
Thankfully, there are some positive learning experiences in the current slump. Primarily, it gives Nedeljkovic a chance to handle the swings of a starting job. In Carolina, he didn’t have to play at a ridiculous level to beat tough teams. Now, he has to be an X-factor every night. Getting used to that expectation is tricky for starters at every level. Judging by the poor sticks he snapped over the last few games, Nedeljkovic isn’t happy with his grade, but that’s a good fire to burn in the face of adversity.
He also gets to treat this season as a workshop, a place to tweak his game against real competition. Detroit isn’t making the playoffs, but it’s still a good team that can steal some meaningful games to screw over rivals. Being that bad guy is right up Nedeljkovic’s personality on the ice (if Cam Talbot wasn’t protected by the referees, Nedeljkovic would’ve bodied him in last night’s line brawl).
Nedeljkovic isn’t quite there yet, but he’s trending in the right direction. Posting 50 percent quality starts for a god awful Detroit defense is impressive. The Red Wings have broken goaltenders lately despite their best efforts (RIP the records of Jimmy Howard, Petr Mrazek and Jonathan Bernier), but it seems like Nedeljkovic might be a quality starter at a time they need him most.
And with as fickle as goaltending can be, that’s all Detroit can really ask for.
Big Tex Goes to College 