Looking at the College Hockey News Pairwise probabilities, Boston University has a 1% chance of making the NCAA Tournament as the last No. 4 seed. It’s likely that even if the Terriers made it, they would be slapped around by juggernaut Minnesota State in a regional and quickly sent back to Beantown.
And that leaves a couple of Detroit Red Wings prospects in a peculiar situation.
Junior left wing Robert Mastrosimone and junior right wing Ethan Phillips, second- and fourth-round draft picks in 2019, respectively, both face the end of their seasons with BU’s almost guaranteed exclusion from the tournament. With only a year left in their college careers, both face decisions that could shape the trajectory of their professional careers.
Phillips is re-finding his game after suffering a season-ending injury in last year’s first game (horrendous luck), so I’ll exclude him from any signing analysis for now. Mastrosimone offers a more intriguing story.
If Mastrosimone chooses to leave the Terriers, Detroit has 30 days after his departure to sign him per the NHL’s draft rules. Then, if he chooses, he would become an unrestricted free agent because he’s 21 and ineligible to be re-drafted. CapFriendly lists his reserve list expiration as August 15, 2023, though it might advance if he leaves college early (and with how deep Hockey East is as a conference, that’s always on the table).
As a second-rounder (54th overall), the Red Wings surely want to put Mastrosimone on the books soon. He’s been a top line left wing for most of BU’s season, and his absence was a huge hurdle for the Terriers to overcome earlier in the season.
Mastrosimone put up 11 goals and 25 points in 34 games this season, and every scout and journalist sees different benefits to his game. McKeen’s loved his high motor before the draft. Future Considerations called out his nasty hands at the same time. However, those came when he was a raw second-round projection that no one really knew about. “High motor” is a codeword for “We don’t know what it is and he’s not eye-popping on the box score, but we like his game.” Those aren’t exactly the best snapshots of his game.
I think the most accurate picture comes from Alex Faber at Octopus Thrower (and The State News, but The Michigan Daily’s archrival gets no free ads). He noted his role as a pure sniper, as well as his lagging backcheck and motor issues.
That was seven months ago, before his junior season, and I think there has been some serious growth in Mastrosimone’s defensive game this year. His available defensive metrics like shot blocking aren’t insane, but it’s important to note his usage as a skill player and goal scorer by the Terriers. In the admittedly small sample size I watched this season, he did a solid job of cutting off passing lanes and protecting the net. His skating, questioned by Future Considerations, has largely improved thanks to conditioning at the college level.
Mastrosimone puts the pieces together when he wants to, but he needs to bring it every night to get a pro look. BU is a great environment for that considering assistant coach Jay Pandolfo’s gritty defensive role with the New Jersey Devils for 800+ games. If Red Wings fans are lucky, he’ll pick up some tips and tricks by osmosis.
He also proved the past two seasons that he can drive his own line. His freshman season, playing on a deep team with Trevor Zegras in the mix gave him someone else to defer to. This season, Mastrosimone has had to create his own chances. Guys like center Wilmer Skoog help him when they share ice time, but he isn’t depending on them to get it done. Mastrosimone’s offensive production is increasingly self-generated, something immensely important when guys are looking to succeed after the jump to pro hockey.
Realistically — barring some sort of renaissance in his game — Mastrosimone is at best the third or fourth forward prospect back in Detroit’s pipeline. Other guys will certainly get a look well before Mastrosimone. Elmer Söderblom, for example, is a 6-foot-8 goal scorer on the same Frölunda team as next-year’s defensive call-up Simon Edvinsson. He’s inevitably higher up on the ladder than Mastrosimone. He also has to beat out Jonatan Berggren, who is on a 50-point pace in Grand Rapids and is best buds with Lucas Raymond. That’s an uphill climb.
But that’s not to say that Mastrosimone isn’t going to get a shot. Above all, he’s a scorer, and that’s what the Red Wings desperately need in their bottom six. His resume gives him a sure shot at playing time in the AHL, and that could translate to the NHL if he proves he can handle the workload. He’s also a second-round pick, and GM Steve Yzerman isn’t going to let him walk away without a fair shake at a roster spot. He’s worth an entry-level deal, especially as the Red Wings’ aging veteran contracts finally expire and open roster spots emerge.
At the very least, Mastrosimone is much needed organizational depth. Especially since the Griffins dynasty is starting to die off as Detroit calls up more and more good players, it’s worth talking to Mastrosimone to see if he is interested. There’s no doubt in my mind that he stays another year with the Terriers — which is good for his development — but after that he could be a solid prospect.
This time next year, his red jersey could sport a Winged Wheel.
Big Tex Goes to College 